Monday, January 31, 2011

In-depth Analysis of Infrastructure Sector: Today and Tomorrow


As we know its a real hard time for Indian Market and one of the most disastrous times for Infrastructure sector particularly. As per the figures The CNX Infrastructure index has slipped more than 13% in the past four weeks compared to the 10% fall in the broad-based Nifty. The difference widens when we look at long-term returns. In the past three years, the infrastructure index has dipped 40% while the Nifty has risen marginally by 1.5%. This is more than shaking for any investor. An in-depth analysis shows that delay in projects is accountable for such a dismal situation for this sector. Most analysts had expected a large number of road project tenders floated by the National Highways Authority of India in the January-March period. But they are worried now because there is no news yet on that front. Several irrigation projects have also got delayed because of the political turmoil in Andhra Pradesh. Furthermore, Land acquisition for power and road projects has not been as swift as expected, leading to a logjam at the execution stage, which pushes up the costs for the companies. A third problem is the delay in payments (both for government and private contracts).
Anyhow this sector cant be considered that dim to keep your hands off. Experts believe the valuations of some infrastructure stocks have been beaten down to very attractive levels. Abhay Aima, director of HDFC Securities, believes that sectors such as infrastructure that have lagged behind in last year’s rally will outperform the broader market this year. Such view may be profitable for the long term investor who can withstand short term pains to a considerable level. Reasons to believe on this sector points towards the corrective measures requisite for maintaining 8% GDP growth by the government. This means that an investor with a 3-4 year investment horizon can reap rich rewards by picking up infrastructure stocks at reasonable valuations.
Here are a few stocks worth considering.
1. Larsen & Toubro ->
1- yr return->12.36%
Analysts' recommendation-> Buy-29 Sell-2
Reason-Since financing remains the major concern,L&T with financial muscle will be able to tide over the problems. Also its Market Capitalization in many other sectors reduces the impact of slowdown in any particular sector. Its valuation has severely come down.

2.NTPC ->
1- yr return-> -9.95%
Analysts' recommendation-> Buy-24 Sell-5
Reason-India has a power deficit of over 11%. So domestic power producers will continue to grow faster than the GDP growth rate. Analysts believe that the earnings of NTPC, the largest power producer in India, will zoom because of the addition of 5500 MW in 2011-12 and another 5300 MW in 2012-13.

3.TATA POWER ->
1- yr return-> -1.65%
Analysts' recommendation-> Buy-17 Sell-1
Reason-Power sector expected to bloom up as mentioned above. Also, Tata Power is the most efficient power producer in India and so is another potential candidate for investment.

4.PTC India ->
1- yr return-> -7.6%
Analysts' recommendation-> Buy-16 Sell-0
Reason- PFS (PTC Financial Services)is an infrastructure financing company with 26% equity exposure in several power projects. Due to 26% equity exposure, quite a part of the profit expected in future to be rewarded to the investors.

My take-> Well there is a lot of theory and analysis involved. I reckon more caution as this sector is prone to more downfalls considering short term performance. For the strong hearted ones this can be a hefty opportunity. I give this report and analysis a thumbs up. But suggesting further analysis from investors also on this sector and stocks recommended above.

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Indian Market Prospectives: PE (Private Equity)

We have heard enough of tough news regarding Indian Markets. Here is some news I got indicating some positivity among PE (Private Equity) players. The survey reported that India has got a better investment scenario than in 2007. Global consultancy Protiviti's survey also found that sectors such as energy and infrastructure are likely to see higher allocation from PE funds in short to medium term. "Strong self consumption driven by the great Indian middle class and consistent economic growth ranked higher in respondent's minds as reason for a more favourable investment environment now as compared to 2007," the report said. The findings are based on a survey of senior executives at more than 25 PE firms. According to the report, basic sectors, energy, infrastructure/real estate, education and pharma/healthcare are expected to be top performers, attracting higher PE funds. Further, the report noted that almost "a third of the respondents believed India shall perform better than both China and Brazil ".

Protiviti, one of the largest independent business and risk consulting firm, operates in India through its arm Protiviti Consulting Pvt Ltd.

My take-> Its really hard to believe that such optimism exists even in the current adversity. Well thats not just a view of a firm but a survey of many PE firms and should be considerably accountable. Well I personally feel in spite of many hiccups, the Indian market is gonna go bullish. The attitude to attain new highs has been fed into the Indian blood. :)

Sunday, January 16, 2011

M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) prospectives in 2011

Here was an article predicting a hotter M&A in the year 2011.

Brief writeup-> The past year has seen many M&A accounting upto 187 total outbound transactions valued at $21.31 billion and total transactions valued at $50 billion across 623 transactions including inbound transactions of India. The biggest one being Airtel's $10.7 billion acquisition of Zain Africa to explore new markets.“The outbound action will be hotter in 2011 though deal valuations might still not be as high as in 2007,” says Nikhil Nath, managing director and head, M&A, Asia at Nomura. The race for acquiring companies outside is being fuelled by India’s hunger for resources as the country tries to regain its 8-9 percent growth rate. In March 2010, Essar acquired US-based Trinity Coal for $600 million to feed its steel units in America. In December, Lanco acquired Griffin Coal Mining in Australia and RIL acquired equity interest in three shale gas assets in US. This very hunger accompanied by easier availability of finance, compared to 2008-09, is going to be the driver for outbound deals in 2011, say experts.Oil and gas, industrial products, power, mining and minerals sectors seem to be most promising ones in this context. And the most attractive shop among all is expected to be that of the pharmacist. Piramal-Abott and Reckitt Benckiser-Paras deals have raised the hopes of the players in this highly fragmented field. The domestic formulations sector is growing at an impressive rate of 15%. Telecom, on the other, is expected to see hectic activity because of the contention that India is not in a position to handle 10-12 players effectively.

My take-> The hunger for resources and markets promises a good year ahead for acquisitions especially in certain sectors like Oil and gas, industrial products, power, mining and minerals sectors. But the most attractive one seems to be the pharma sector. Telecom seems to be stagnated somewhat due to crowding of players in this sector. Thank you!

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Inflation's affect on SENSEX

Well here i came up with something actually describing the affect of inflation on SENSEX in concord with the recent market headwinds.

Brief summary->As already known the current poor performance of SENSEX is credited to high inflation persistent in the Indian Economy.The food price index rose 18.32 per cent in the 12 months to December 25, the highest in more than a year. The fuel price index climbed 11.63 per cent. In the prior week, annual food and fuel inflation stood at 14.44 per cent and 11.63 per cent respectively. The primary articles price index was up 20.20 per cent in the latest week, compared with an annual rise of 17.24 per cent a week earlier. The Wholesale Price Index, the most widely watched gauge of prices in India, rose 7.48 per cent in November from a year earlier, compared with 8.58 per cent in October. According to the prime minister's economic advisory council chairman C Rangarajan, the inflation rate could be considered comfortable only when it comes down to four per cent. While raising rates can do little to cap cost-driven inflation, it can help cool overall demand and contain inflationary expectations fuelled by a broad rally in the commodity markets.

Rising inflation leads to increase in interest costs, which affects the companies depending on debt finance as the cost of funds increases. This negatively affects the bottom lines of the companies.

Moreover, increase in prices leads to decrease in demand, which again affects the corporate bottom lines. The purchasing power of people gets reduced. All these cumulatively have an adverse affect on the corporates, and thereby on the Sensex.

My inference- The above summary hopefully meets all the questions about the reasons for current disturbances in Indian Market. Thank you!

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Market Watch

Here is a brief summary of the markets' performance today. Realty, technology, oilspace led the decline while banks, capital goods showed resistance. After showing a relatively strong performance throughout the day, markets showed volatility during the closing hours.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 5754.10, down 8.75 points or 0.15 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 5842.60 and low of 5698.20 intraday.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 19196.34, down 27.78 points or 0.14 per cent. The 30-share index touched a high of 19431.56 and low of 19003.60 in today’s trade.

“After having corrected around 400 points on the Nifty, the market looks oversold. Technical indicators suggest a bounce back in next 4-5 trading sessions and Nifty may touch 5920-5930 levels. We expect a correction to set in after that and the Nifty may slip to strong support of 5690-5700. Traders should adopt ‘sell on bounce’ strategy in this market,” said Ashish Shroff, technical analyst, Ambit Capital.

Interview with Sunil Singhania, Reliance MF

Well here today am not gonna be on with all the stock tutorials and on.. Its about some articles that i read and i would like to share some good ones with all.. As for the current headlines its all bout crashing SENSEX and Indian market. Here I came up with an interview with Sunil Singhania, Reliance MF with some views on what the the past week crumble indicated to.

As for my conclusion regarding this interview->
Surprisingly he was still very optimistic about the Indian markets but in the long term prospective. Inflation and hike of interest rates seem to be just a short termed headwind which is expected to recede soon. The current scenario is considered to be good one for the long term investors who can actually buy the stocks at relatively low value now and expect high returns in the long run. Reliance MF seems to be concentrating on second tier banks with higher dips expecting the best return from this sector as the "headwind" exits.

My inference->
Sorry people i am a newbee, but i think its gonna be a while when we are actually gonna see a real bullish market giving higher returns keeping in mind the peeving inflation and lack of optimism to see some short term corrections being made. Times seem bad for the short term investors as for now. Thank you.

Link->http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/markets-fairly-valued-sunil-singhania-reliance-mf/articleshow/7259423.cms

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Tutorial -- Stocks


Let us start with an illustration. Suppose you want to start a business, say sell computers. But you don't have adequate finances to rent a shop and build infrastructure. But you feel that once given a start, in course of time your business would do well and you would be able to earn money over your investments. You go to your room mate and the friend next door to lend you some money, on the condition that you would pay their money back along with some extra gifts (in form of money) for lending you their money in the first place. What you have effectively done is floated stocks of your company which your friends bought, using that money you made profits on your business and paid your friends dividends proportional to the amount they lent you ( i.e. number of stocks they purchased).
Similarly every company needs to raise money to run its business. It floats its stocks in the market. When the company floats stocks for the first time, it is called Initial Public Offering (You must have heard of a certain company floating IPO's. Well this is what it meant! ). People read company's plans and if feel optimistic about the future of the company, they buy certain number of stocks based on their financial potency. Now they also carry the risk of their money going down the drain if the company fails to perform and has to shutdown its business. This is where the vital difference in Loans and Share comes into picture. You could say that instead of going and selling shares to thousands of people (and this incurring lot of management and transaction cost), company would have resorted to a Bank for a loan. It could have, but then if company went bankrupt, the bank officials would sell the assets (house, cars and even wardrobe) of the company officials to get their money back. But when they raise money through shares, they also throw their risk on the people. In other words, if they went bankrupt, they would not have to sell their house and wives' jewelry to pay its shareholders their money back. In other words, they will not be legally indebted to you.
So a company has floated IPO and its shares have been bought by people. Henceforth the company has no say over the shares. It is with you and me and others who bought, and we may do anything with our shares. That means that we can also sell our shares to other at a price higher than what we bought. Suppose that when IPO was made, you bought 10 shares of ABC Co. at Rs 60 per share. Your room mate smells that the company is doing well and would continue to do so in near future. He offers you to buy your share at Rs100 per share. BINGO ! You have
eared 10*(100-60) =Rs400 from the share market. And similarly your room mate would sell them when he feels that now that company is underperforming and would soon sink. Simple eh! Not exactly !
So now a very obvious question that crops up is that if you own a partnership in the company, you should have a say in the decisions of the company. Of course you do have. Every year, the company holds an annual meeting with the shareholders where they can question or suggest the decision making of the company. However if you are holding shares worth Rs10,000 in ABC Co, would you spend Rs5,000 in your travel expenses to the place of meeting plus accommodation and other costs that you would incur. And above all would you miss your prestigious MTH101 lectures for the meeting where there will be hundred of other share holders voicing their opinions. Certainly Not! You feel that management is capable enough to manage your money. By buying shares, you have delegated the responsibility of running your business (yes, YOUR business because you have a partnership proportional to your shares) about which you know nothing on the management.
Now suppose Mr. X holds shares worh Rs 10, 000, 000 ABC Co. The company's policies and decision would dramatically affect Mr. X's finances and thus possesses far more influence and voting rights. Shareholders vote some members as boards of Directors who make decisions on major company policies. Board of directors may or may not hold shares of the company. They are only appointed by the share holders ( like Mr X, and not you and me) to look in to the working of the management. Generally companies raise money partly through shares and partly through debt (loans). An extremely important feature of stock is its limited liability, which means that, as an owner of a stock, you are not personally liable if the company is not able to pay its debts. Owning stock means that, no matter what, the maximum value you can lose is the value of your investment. Even if a company of which you are a shareholder goes bankrupt, creditors will not chase the share holders for their money. That's all for the basics. Time to get to enter the world of Jargons.
There are two types of Stocks : Common Stocks and Preferred Stocks. Common Stocks: Most of the stocks are common stocks. Limited Voting rights (generally 1 vote per stock to elect board of directors). Dividend are paid to stock holders if company performs well, but may not be paid if it underperforms. Preferred Stocks : Fixed dividends are paid the share holders owning preferred stocks. If company goes bankrupt, it will be these share holders who will be paid after the creditors and whatever left will paid to Common Stock Holders. However here the company has the option to buy these stocks back from the share holders anytime it wishes to. Sometimes stocks are also classified as Class A and Class B stocks depending upon the voting right contained in unit stock. For example Class A stock of certain company may contain 10 votes per stock ( to elect board of directors) while class B may contain only 1 vote per stock.
Now suppose you want to trade your stocks. One option is go around the city asking people to buy your stocks. A better option would be to go to stock market where the buyers are and sellers of the stocks meet. Examples of stock markets are BSE ( Bombay Stock Exchange), NSE ( National Stock Exchange). NYSE (New York
Stock Exchange) and Nasdaq are two most important stock market of America . Two other important financial hubs are London , Home of London Stock Exchange and Honkong, Home of Hongkong Stock Exchange.
Some Definitions :
Direct Market: Where IPO's are made.
Indirect Market: Where the other stocks (not IPO's) are bought and sold. Thus the companies whose stocks are being traded has no say in the indirect market. Generally we refer to this kind of market when we talk about stock markets. Most of the people like you and me do not have the know how of trading stocks and what price to bid for. Neither we want to get involved in the yelling nor pushing and bumping that goes on stock markets. So we appoint an agent called “Broker” who does the job for us. For if you want to buy a stock of particular companies, call a broker and he will intimate you with current prices and future prospects of various stocks. Then based on your decision, he on your behalf would go and purchase the stocks you request for. Obviously you pay the broker for sharing his experience and services. Broker, What a friend to have ! Wrong, not most of the times. Remember Harshad Mehta Scam.
Earlier the brokers use to be quite expenses and generally not in the reach of a common man. With the advent of internet, most of these services became available cheap and online. Today you can buy the stocks at the press of the key while sitting in your rooms.
Another way to buy shares is Dividend Reinvestment plan ( DRP). Sometimes Companies offer the share holders more share in place of dividends. Generally DRP is a good option because of two reasons. Since company is offering dividends means it is performing well in the market. So it makes sense to invest more in that company. Secondly when shares are offered at a lower price when done through DRP
By now you might have realized that astronomical amount of money involved share markets. And also the potential for cheating, fraud or scam. Company officials may sell stocks worth millions to innocent people like you and me and abscond away to Switzerland for a long & expensive vacation. And no way will you and me be able to get our hard earned cash back. Enters SEBI – Security and Exchange Board of India . Government organization that frames a set of rules and regulation for the stock markets for companies, brokers and even share holders. For example every company has to list itself with SEBI and get its approval before making an IPO or floating new stocks in the market. Similarly all the brokers have to register themselves to SEBI. You may like to take a look at SEBI website (http://www.sebi.gov.in). We will cover the details of SEBI later when we learn about IPO's.
We have dealt with the question of how to buy stocks. But the more important is still unanswered? When to buy and sell stocks. Because this would determine the fate of your fiscal gains. Prices of the stocks rise when people realize that company's future is bright. Note that it is not sufficient for only you to have this realization, but market as a hole. Hence there will be people chasing you for your shares bidding high prices. Thus value of a stock depends on its future valuation by the public.
A value of the company is its Market Capitalization. It is the product of the total number of stocks in the market and the cost per share. Thus a company with 100 stocks at Rs1000/share is more worth than company with 200 stocks at Rs250/share. Number of mathematical expressions are used as indicators for valuating company's future prospects. Market Capitalization is just on of them. Some others are P/E ratio (Price Earning Ratio), EPS (Earning per share) , PEG (Price Earning to Growth) etc. They are briefly explained below.
* P/E Ratio : It is the ratio of price per share and the earning per share. A high value is suggestive of future growth.
* EPS : It is the profit allocated to the each out standing common share.
EPS = (Net Income - Dividends on preferred stocks)/Total no. of outstanding stocks It is the most commonly used indicator variable. EPS indicates the profitability of the company. So just compare EPS or P/E ratio or other indices of various companies, and the one that gives the best value is the most prizes stock present. Simple eh! WRONG ! These variables are only suggestive and lot of decisions on stock markets depend on political , international and social scenario, companys future plans and strategies, its reputation in public and very much on the mystery word called “intuition". A lot of experience and market knowledge underlies the successful investment in stock markets. We will consider this aspect after we are through our basics on stock markets.
That was all as far as basics are concerned. Hopefully after going through these pages, all those nitty gritty headlines in newspapers would make sense. Before concluding, we will take a look at few more jargons we frequently come across when talking about stock markets.
BULLS : When the economy is prospering, GDP is shooting up, Stock prices are rising and future prospects look good, the environment is termed is market for bulls. People buy without putting much thought in bulls market. This attitude is termed as bullish attitude. BEWARE : You can fall to rumbles if you don't discern the approach of the maxima of bulls market, because after certain point, prices begin to fall .
BEARS : Bears are just opposite to the bulls. When economy is in recession, stock prices are falling and national income is going down, it is said to be the market for bears. People are reluctant to buy stocks in a bear market. However if you can spot the the end of a bear market using logic or sixth sense or any other means, you can be a millionaire in days as after the end of bear market, the prices of the stocks are bound to go up.
Chickens and Pigs : Chicken are the people who are extremely pessimistic about stock prices and very reluctant to invest. They are afraid to loose anything and have a very low appetite for risk. They generally invest only in securities with low but fixed return with certainity.Pigs are the ones who are very emotional impatient to grow rich in stock markets as such such sell and buy stock in a matter of hours without putting much thought and wisdom over them.
It is often said , “ Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs just get slaughtered!”.
Phew !! You just now had a very heavy dose on ABC of the ‘stock markets'. Go and chill out In canteen, for stock markets can make life very hot. But make sure you follow up the following the useful links to have a more detailed picture of Stocks